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Much of our business thinking is shaped by delusions -- errors of logic and flawed judgments that distort our understanding of the real reasons for a company's performance. In a brilliant and unconventional book, Phil Rosenzweig unmasks the delusions that are commonly found in the corporate world. These delusions affect the business press and academic research, as well as many bestselling books that promise to reveal the secrets of success or the path to greatness. Such books claim to be based on rigorous thinking, but operate mainly at the level of storytelling. They provide comfort and inspiration, but deceive managers about the true nature of business success.

The most pervasive delusion is the Halo Effect. When a company's sales and profits are up, people often conclude that it has a brilliant strategy, a visionary leader, capable employees, and a superb corporate culture. When performance falters, they conclude that the strategy was wrong, the leader became arrogant, the people were complacent, and the culture was stagnant. In fact, little may have changed -- company performance creates a Halo that shapes the way we perceive strategy, leadership, people, culture, and more.

Drawing on examples from leading companies including Cisco Systems, IBM, Nokia, and ABB, Rosenzweig shows how the Halo Effect is widespread, undermining the usefulness of business bestsellers from In Search of Excellence to Built to Last and Good to Great.

Rosenzweig identifies nine popular business delusions. Among them:

The Delusion of Absolute Performance: Company performance is relative to competition, not absolute, which is why following a formula can never guarantee results. Success comes from doing things better than rivals, which means that managers have to take risks.

The Delusion of Rigorous Research: Many bestselling authors praise themselves for the vast amount of data they have gathered, but forget that if the data aren't valid, it doesn't matter how much was gathered or how sophisticated the research methods appear to be. They trick the reader by substituting sizzle for substance.

The Delusion of Single Explanations: Many studies show that a particular factor, such as corporate culture or social responsibility or customer focus, leads to improved performance. But since many of these factors are highly correlated, the effect of each one is usually less than suggested.

In what promises to be a landmark book, The Halo Effect replaces mistaken thinking with a sharper understanding of what drives business success and failure. The Halo Effect is a guide for the thinking manager, a way to detect errors in business research and to reach a clearer understanding of what drives business success and failure.

Skeptical, brilliant, iconoclastic, and mercifully free of business jargon, Rosenzweig's book is nevertheless dead serious, making his arguments about important issues in an unsparing and direct way that will appeal to a broad business audience. For managers who want to separate fact from fiction in the world of business, The Halo Effect is essential reading -- witty, often funny, and sharply argued, it's an antidote to so much of the conventional thinking that clutters business bookshelves.

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假象一：光环效应

倾向于将一个公司的整体业绩归功于企业文化、领导人、价值观等等。事实上，大部分被称作企业业绩驱动力的因素往往要归功于企业先前的业绩。

假象二：因果联系

两件事也许相关，但不能就此断言哪一件决定了另一件。员工满意度越高企业业绩就越好吗？事实表明大多数情况恰恰相反：企业业绩越好，员工满意度越高。

假象三：单一解释

很多研究都将业绩提升归结于一项特定因素，比如浓郁的企业文化、领导得当或者关注顾客。但实际上很多因素互相联系紧密，单一因素的作用常常被夸大了。

假象四：关注胜者

如果只是找些成功的公司分析它们的共同点，而没有那些不成功的公司做对比，那永远也找不出公司出色的原因。

假象五：填密研究

如果数据质量不好，数据的数量和研究方法的复杂程度毫无意义。

假象六：长盛不衰

所有业绩优秀的公司长期发展后都趋于平庸，长盛不衰的蓝图诱人却不切实际。

假象七：绝对业绩

公司的业绩是相对而非绝对的。很可能一个公司的业绩大幅提高，但同时被竞争对手甩得更远。

假象八：本末倒置

成功的公司大多坚持战略一致，但不是坚持战略一致就一定能成功。

假象九：组织物理学

公司业绩不遵循恒定的自然法则，因此，尽管我们追求精确与秩序，还是不能像自然科学那样预测。

但书（《4+2: 什么对企业真正有效》）中根本美欧这类成功秘笈。真正该问的不该是『什么对企业真正有效』，这句话不该用现在时，准确来说，应该是『什么对企业曾经有效』，甚至『企业业绩好时人们怎么说』。

对世界各地的经理人来说，关键不是将著名商业书籍作者的话当成圣旨，而是要独立思考，用批判的眼光衡量读到的内容。这一点放之四海而皆准，对中国的经理人和商学院学生而言也同样重要。随着当下中国经济增长迅速，对西方管理经济理念的渴望也尤为强烈。学习先进的观念固然重要，但更重要的是培养批判性思维能力，将可靠和不可靠的发现区分开的鉴别力。

...学会了不要随意接受表面观点，而是用怀疑的思维模式去来接近读到和听到的东西

约瑟夫熊彼得（Joseph Schumpeter） 在1942年的《资本主义、社会主义与民主》(Capitalism, Socialism, and Democracy)中指出了创新为本的竞争方式：

不竭动力来自新顾客、新产品、新型生产和运输方式、新市场、企业创造的新组织方式。

每条战略只有在当时的情境中才能显示出自己的重要性，必须要将它看成持续的创造性破坏的狂风骤雨中的医一员，而不能不顾这一事实，以为市场永远都波澜不惊……

假象一:光环效应

倾向于将一个公司的整体业绩归功于企业文化、领导人、价值观等等。事实上，大部分被称作企业业绩驱动力的因素往往要归功于企业先前的业绩。

假象二:因果联系

两件事也许相关，但不能就此断言哪一件决定了另一件。

假象三:单一解释

很多研究都将业绩提升归结于一项特定因素，比如浓郁的企业文化、领导得当或者关注顾客。但实际上很多因素互相联系紧密。

假象四:关注胜者

如果只是找些成功的公司分析它们的共同点，而没有那些不成功的公司做对比，那永远也找不出公司出色的原因。

假象五:缜密研究

如果数据质量不好，数据的数量和研究方法的复杂程度毫无意义。

假象六:长盛不衰

所有业绩优秀的公司长期发展后都趋于平庸，长盛不衰的蓝图诱人却不切实际。

假象七:绝对业绩

公司的业绩是相对而非绝对的。很可能一个公司的业绩大幅提高，但同时被竞争对手甩得更远。

假象八:本末倒置

成功的公司大多坚持战略一致，但不是坚持战略一致就一定能成功。

假象九:组织物理学

公司业绩不遵循恒定的自然法则，因此，尽管我们追求精确与秩序，还是不能像自然科学那样预测。

书籍介绍

Much of our business thinking is shaped by delusions -- errors of logic and flawed judgments that distort our understanding of the real reasons for a company's performance. In a brilliant and unconventional book, Phil Rosenzweig unmasks the delusions that are commonly found in the corporate world. These delusions affect the business press and academic research, as well as many bestselling books that promise to reveal the secrets of success or the path to greatness. Such books claim to be based on rigorous thinking, but operate mainly at the level of storytelling. They provide comfort and inspiration, but deceive managers about the true nature of business success.

The most pervasive delusion is the Halo Effect. When a company's sales and profits are up, people often conclude that it has a brilliant strategy, a visionary leader, capable employees, and a superb corporate culture. When performance falters, they conclude that the strategy was wrong, the leader became arrogant, the people were complacent, and the culture was stagnant. In fact, little may have changed -- company performance creates a Halo that shapes the way we perceive strategy, leadership, people, culture, and more.

Drawing on examples from leading companies including Cisco Systems, IBM, Nokia, and ABB, Rosenzweig shows how the Halo Effect is widespread, undermining the usefulness of business bestsellers from In Search of Excellence to Built to Last and Good to Great.

Rosenzweig identifies nine popular business delusions. Among them:

The Delusion of Absolute Performance: Company performance is relative to competition, not absolute, which is why following a formula can never guarantee results. Success comes from doing things better than rivals, which means that managers have to take risks.

The Delusion of Rigorous Research: Many bestselling authors praise themselves for the vast amount of data they have gathered, but forget that if the data aren't valid, it doesn't matter how much was gathered or how sophisticated the research methods appear to be. They trick the reader by substituting sizzle for substance.

The Delusion of Single Explanations: Many studies show that a particular factor, such as corporate culture or social responsibility or customer focus, leads to improved performance. But since many of these factors are highly correlated, the effect of each one is usually less than suggested.

In what promises to be a landmark book, The Halo Effect replaces mistaken thinking with a sharper understanding of what drives business success and failure. The Halo Effect is a guide for the thinking manager, a way to detect errors in business research and to reach a clearer understanding of what drives business success and failure.

Skeptical, brilliant, iconoclastic, and mercifully free of business jargon, Rosenzweig's book is nevertheless dead serious, making his arguments about important issues in an unsparing and direct way that will appeal to a broad business audience. For managers who want to separate fact from fiction in the world of business, The Halo Effect is essential reading -- witty, often funny, and sharply argued, it's an antidote to so much of the conventional thinking that clutters business bookshelves.